Howard Wolfson, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's top strategist during her presidential campaign and current Fox News contributor, predicted Tuesday evening that Barack Obama will win the election in November and that Democrats will take over both houses of Congress and the New York State Legislature.

"There's a much better than average chance it's going to happen," he said.

Wolfson offered his assessments in Adam's Mark Hotel as the keynote speaker at the 2008 annual meeting of the Business Council of New York State.

Wolfson acknowledged to the crowd of more than 300 business leaders that if he had been asked earlier this year where he would be in September, he would not have guessed Western New York. Western Pennsylvania and Western Ohio would have been more likely guesses, he said, referring to Clinton's failed bid for the Democratic nomination.

But he said he welcomed the chance to put on his new pundit hat to share his thoughts and knowledge about the upcoming election.

Wolfson pointed out that recent polls show 70 percent of the American public believes the country is going in the wrong direction - and he said that's good news for Obama.

He said he believes the race between Obama and John McCain is so close because they are both enormously popular figures.

Wolfson said big news events, like this week's stock market plunge, are to Obama's advantage because they remind the public about their dissatisfaction with the current administration.

But, Wolfson said, McCain's campaign has done well with "winning news cycles" with controversies like the "lipstick on a pig" comment.

Wolfson took questions from the audience. Among the questioners was former Senate Majority Leader Joseph L. Bruno, who earlier in the evening had been awarded the Corning Award for Excellence. He asked Wolfson why he thought Obama didn't pick Clinton as his running mate.

"I've long been on the record that Hillary would be the best choice," Wolfson said.

But he added that he never believed Obama would pick her.

He acknowledged that he spoke many "unkind words" about Obama and that the candidates also had done so against each other and that ultimately there was too much "water under the bridge."

By Maki Becker, The Buffalo News, September 17, 2008