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Friday, July 18, 2008

What Obama-Clinton Divide?

The political chatter over the last few days has centered on the continued rift between backers of Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton.

First came the report over the weekend that Obama had, in a private conversation with a Democratic donor friendly to Clinton, said that former President Bill Clinton would be a "complication" to his wife's chances at the vice presidency.

Then came a story by Huffington Post in which three major donors to Clinton's campaign expressed their doubts and hesitations about jumping on board with Obama.

A look inside the numbers of the most recent Washington Post/ABC News poll in which Obama lead John McCain 50 percent to 42 percent suggests, however, that while elements of discontent remain, Obama is not suffering broadly among any group that overwhelmingly sided with Clinton in the primary season.

(A note of thanks to Post polling director Jon Cohen and polling analyst Jennifer Agiesta for making the numbers available to The Fix.)

Among women, the strongest pillar of Clinton's support in the primary, Obama holds a wide 54 percent to 39 percent lead over McCain. And, even among white women, who were one of Obama's weakest constituencies in the primary season, he fights McCain to a statistical draw -- 47 percent to 46 percent. Compare that to the 2004 presidential race in which Sen. John Kerry (Mass.) lost white women by 11 points to President George W. Bush and won women overall by just three points.

As for the white, rural, blue-collar voters of whom much was made following large Clinton victories in places like Ohio, Kentucky, Pennsylvania and West Virginia, there also seems to be no entrenched resistance to Obama's candidacy.

While Obama is losing among white voters (50 percent McCain, 42 percent Obama), there is no gap between how he performs among whites with college degrees and those without a college education; McCain lead 51 percent to 44 percent among white college graduates and 50 percent to 41 percent among white non-college graduates.

Among white voters who make $50,000 a year or less -- those lower middle class voters some strategists believed would abandon Democrats after Clinton lost the nomination fight -- Obama and McCain are running even (45 percent Obama, 44 percent McCain).

In both voting blocs, Obama is overperforming Kerry's showing in 2004. Kerry lost white non-college voters by 23 points to Bush and came up short among white voters earning less than $50,000 by seven points.

Older voters, who went strongly for Clinton over Obama in the primaries, also seem to have come home to the Illinois senator. He took 47 percent to McCain's 46 percent among voters between 50 and 64 years of age and only trailed the Arizona senator by five points -- 45 percent to 40 percent -- among those 65 and older.

In 2004, Bush won a narrow 51 percent to 48 percent victory over Kerry among those 45 to 59 years of age, while taking a broader 54 percent to 46 percent edge among those over 60 years old.

The news of the poll is not entirely hunky-dory for those Democrats who hope to leave the "Obama vs. Clinton" narrative behind heading into the fall election, however.

Among those who said they supported Clinton in the primary, nearly one in four (23 percent) said they would back McCain over Obama in a hypothetical trial heat -- a significant chunk of voters given that the vast majority of backers of the New York senator are far more likely to agree with Obama rather than McCain on issues.

Overall, however, the results of the Post/ABC poll seem to contradict the conventional wisdom that a major rift remains in the party. There are, without question, a group of Clinton allies -- particularly in the major donor community -- who can't, and may never be able to, bring themselves to back Obama.

But, for the average person, the scars of the primary (if they ever really existed) seem to have healed. That's good news for Democrats who have long believed the one thing that could keep them from the White House in the fall is a significant fracture within their base of supporters.




By Chris Cillizza, The Washington Post, July 16, 2008
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