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Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Clinton Gains in Penn Polls, But Delegate Battle is Close

Three Pennsylvania polls this week suggest that Hillary Rodham Clinton is rebuilding her edge in Pennsylvania--or at least starting to hold off Barack Obama --while he tries to put the "bitter" remark controversy behind him.

In a survey conducted April 14 by Rasmussen Reports, Clinton leads Obama by 50 percent to 41 percent with a 4 point margin of error. On Monday, American Research Group had given Clinton a 20 point lead based on an April 11-13 survey, after a series of polls showed Obama catching Clinton in the state. Clinton had led by 5 points in Rasmussen's poll last week.

A Quinnipiac University survey conducted April 9-13 had her lead at 50 percent to 44 percent with a 2.1 percent margin of error, unchanged from its April 8 poll. Quinnipiac said it did not find noticeable fallout from Obama's remarks in the part of its survey conducted April 12-13, after they were reported on the Huffington Post.

Quinnipiac's Clay Richards said, "Clinton is fighting off Obama's drive to make it a close race in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary, holding the six-point edge she had a week ago. She seems to have halted the erosion of whites and white women in particular from her campaign ... (and) even gained back some ground in the Philadelphia suburbs."

A SurveyUSA poll conducted April 12-14 has Clinton ahead 54 percent to 40 percent with a 3.9 percent margin of error.

Obama has a slight lead over Clinton among voters under 34 in the SurveyUSA poll, but loses in every other age group, including by a 2-to-1 margin among voters over 65. Clinton also leads 2-to-1 among white voters (81 percent of the sample) while Obama is ahead among black voters 82 percent to 15 percent (14 percent of the sample). The economy is the top issue for 44 percent of voters, with Clinton leading 65 percent to 31 percent among that group.

But even if Clinton wins the popular vote by a respectable margin, her edge in the race for delegates may be small. A district-by-district analysis by CQ Politics today projects Clinton would win 53 district-level delegates to 50 for Obama under the Democratic Party's proportional distribution rules.

As the candidates continue to spar over Obama's remark about how Pennsylvanians "bitter" over job losses and broken political promises "cling to guns or religion," Rasmussen found Clinton ahead by 17 points among voters from households where someone owns a gun, and also leading among voters who say religion is somewhat or very important. Seventy-five percent of likely primary voters say they have heard about the Obama remark, and they disagree with it 51 percent to 35 percent. That roughly matches the sentiment that Rasmussen found nationally in a survey released yesterday. Obama supporters agree with him 59 percent to 25 percent while nearly three-quarters of Clinton supporters disagree.

Obama told the Philadelphia Inquirer in an interview yesterday that he had "mangled" the Pennsylvania remark.

SurveyUSA zeroed in on the "bitter" controversy in a poll conducted April 14 among residents of the harrisburg-area whose congressman, Tim Holden, describes as "conservative, rural, not pro-choice, not gun control" and not like "the Philadelphia guys."

Voters there disagreed with Obama's remark by 50 percent to 43 percent, with a 4.3 percent margin of error. Those over 55 disagreed the most strongly among the age groups. Conservatives disagree 71 percent to 25 percent, while moderates and liberals agreed by margins of 13 points or more. Regular attendees of religious services disagreed 55 percent to 38 percent, in contrast to those who attend only occasionally or almost never. Gun owners disagreed 53 percent to 40 percent.

However, 56 percent of voters did not find the comment offensive, compared to 40 percent who did. Forty-four percent predicted the controversy would not affect the outcome of Obama's campaign, 42 percent said it would and 14 percent believed it would have a positive impact.



CQ Politics, April 15, 2008
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