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Monday, February 11, 2008

Numbers elusive in tight race between Clinton, Obama

Contrasting figures give each a narrow delegate lead ahead of Tuesday voting. Meanwhile, McCain tries to shake off Huckabee's weekend victories with a plug from Gary Bauer.

With four fresh states in his pocket from weekend voting, Sen. Barack Obama shifted his campaign focus today to the geographic heart of the very government he has railed against on the stump: Washington, D.C., Virginia and Maryland.

The voting Tuesday could catapult Obama into the delegate lead for the Democratic presidential nomination, although a clear total of how many delegates each candidate has amassed has been elusive.

The Associated Press this morning gives the lead to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York with 1,136 to 1,108 for Obama of Illinois. But the website Real Clear Politics gives Obama a five-delegate lead. Both include so-called "super delegates" -- elected officials and party leaders whose choice is personal and not tied to primary or caucus results.

All three contests Tuesday play to Obama's campaign strengths, with high numbers of well-educated and high-income voters, and large numbers of African American voters. Obama has also led Clinton in recent polls in Virginia and Maryland.

In fact, the next several contests are in states in which Obama is expected to do well before heading into the March 4 contests among voters that tend to favor Clinton: older and blue-collar Democrats in Ohio and Latinos in Texas.

But there was uncertainty over how strong Clinton's support might be should Obama continue to build momentum in the intervening states. And the Obama campaign announced today that it would begin airing television ads in Texas, signaling that he was not about to cede the state to her.

Concerns over the campaign's direction led Clinton to replace her campaign manager Sunday, four days after she announced that she had lent her campaign $5 million to compensate for an announced spike in fundraising success by Obama in January.

On the Republican side, which also holds "Potomac Primary" contests Tuesday, Sen. John McCain sought to shake off a rough weekend in which former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee won two of three contests.

Huckabee scored a decisive win in Kansas and edged ahead of McCain in Louisiana. He also trailed in Washington state, where caucus results are still being tallied, by only two percentage points.

The contests had little effect on the delegate count, but were a clear indication that McCain, although he has the nomination all but locked up, still faces trouble unifying the party behind his candidacy.

That might have been helped this morning with the announced endorsement of longtime anti-abortion activist -- and 2000 presidential contender -- Gary Bauer, former head of the Family Research Council and founder of the Campaign for Working Families.

In a prepared statement, Bauer lauded McCain's efforts in "defending human rights around the world, including the rights of the unborn," an attempt to give the Arizona senator some credibility with social conservatives on an issue over which they have at times been at odds.

But Bauer also cited what the McCain campaign has pushed as one of his key strengths.

"John McCain alone has the experience, character and credibility to lead as commander in chief on Day One and defeat the transcendent threat of our time -- radical Islamic extremism," Bauer said.

All the major candidates -- and some of their spouses -- had busy days lined up today.

McCain had single appearances scheduled in Maryland and Virginia. Huckabee had a series of television interviews on morning talk shows while his wife, Janet Huckabee, had four stops scheduled in Maryland.

Clinton began the day with "coffee and conversation" with supporters in Washington, D.C., and was scheduled to make an appearance in Maryland and Virginia, while Bill Clinton was scheduled to campaign in three cities in Virginia.

Obama was focusing on Maryland, with two appearances scheduled. A third appearance in Virginia was canceled because of foul weather. His wife, Michelle Obama, also had two scheduled events in Maryland.




By Scott Martelle, Los Angeles Times, February 11, 2008
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